The first half of July has traditionally been a strong period for the stock market, and this year is expected to follow suit. Historical data from Goldman Sachs shows that since 1928, the S&P 500 typically sees its best two-week performance during the first half of July. Specifically, July 1st and 3rd have the highest rates of positive returns, with average gains of 0.36% and 0.49% respectively. The Nasdaq 100 has also shown consistent strength, posting positive returns for 16 consecutive Julys with an average return of 4.64%.
This year, market analysts are particularly optimistic due to a record $7 trillion in money market funds that could potentially flow into equities. This influx of capital is expected to coincide with quarter-end and second-half-of-the-year rebalancing, further boosting stock prices. Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s recent decisions and economic data releases are creating a conducive environment for growth, with many investors anticipating a potential 4% surge in the S&P 500, pushing it to new record highs.